Analysis of gold news: In the US market on Tuesday (April 2), spot gold’s short-term gains expanded to over $20, setting a record high to $2,288.88 per ounce, rising by nearly $40 within the day. After the US PCE data last Friday, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in June once rose to 70%. However, after the release of US ISM manufacturing PMI data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in June fell back to below 60%. In the short term, the U.S. dollar index is still biased towards strength in the short term, while the gold price has risen too much in the short term. We need to beware of the risk of a short-term shock correction in gold prices. On this trading day, you need to pay attention to the monthly rate of U.S. factory orders and February JOLTs job vacancies in the U.S., pay attention to the speeches of New York Fed President Williams, Cleveland Fed President Mester, and San Francisco Fed President Daley, and pay attention to the market’s expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Changes in the performance of the U.S. dollar and U.S. bond yields will also affect the short-term gold price trend.
Today’s gold strategy sharing: It is recommended to focus on low and long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. Focus on the first-line resistance of 2296 at the top and the first-line support of 2267 at the bottom.
Analysis of crude oil news: In the U.S. market on Tuesday (April 2), U.S. crude oil fluctuated higher and is currently trading around $85.5 per barrel. Crude oil prices rose on Monday, with U.S. crude futures closing at a five-month high on expectations that economic growth in the United States and China will boost demand, a survey showed a slight decline in OPEC oil production in March, and attacks on Russian refineries also increased supply pressure. June Brent crude oil became the first trading day for the front-month contract. The intraday high hit $87.98 per barrel, a new high since October 30. It closed at $87.42 per barrel, settling with the June contract on March 28. Compared with the price, it increased by approximately $0.42, or 0.5%. March 29 is the Good Friday holiday. On March 28, the settlement price of the May Brent crude oil contract was US$87.48 per barrel, a five-month high. Recent terrorist attacks from Ukraine have knocked down several Russian refineries, which will reduce Russian fuel exports as almost 1 million barrels per day of Russian crude processing capacity are shut down. Supply from Cushing, Oklahoma, the key U.S. oil storage hub, also tightened, supporting short-term prices. An Israeli airstrike on the Iranian embassy and consulate in Syria killed seven people, an incident that could mark a major escalation in the conflict between Iran and Israel. Traders believe the development will push up risk premiums on crude oil. However, the current disk performance shows that the downstream refined oil market is struggling to cope with strong oil prices. The global refined oil cracking gap continues to weaken as oil prices rise. Many signs indicate that there are challenges to downstream acceptance of high oil prices, which has restrained oil prices. Rising geopolitical factors and tight supply have heightened investor concerns, which has dominated the strong movement of oil prices. But at the same time, we can also see that there are differences in the influencing factors of the crude oil market, which also means that there is a high probability of repeated high oil prices. Pay attention to the rhythm and participate with caution.
Today’s crude oil strategy sharing: It is recommended to focus on rebounding from high altitudes, supplemented by low and long corrections. Focus on the first-line resistance of 86.0 at the top and the first-line support of 83.0 at the bottom.
Caution is required in operation and suggestions are provided for reference.
